讲座主题：“Was the World’s Trouble China’s Opportunity?” The Effects of World War I on Chinese Textile Industry

主讲嘉宾：刘丛（上海财经大学经济学院助理教授）

讲座时间：2018年11月2日（周五），下午1：30-3:00

讲座地点：沙河主教301

嘉宾简介：刘丛，上海财经大学助理教授，2016年获得亚利桑那大学经济学博士学位，2011年获得北京大学经济学学士学位。她的主要研究领域包括中国经济史、发展经济学、政治经济学、国际贸易。研究成果发表于《经济研究》等期刊。

内容摘要：

Import substitution is a commonly adopted policy, yet the evidence on its results is mixed. This paper uses unexpected trade disturbances due to World War I to study how a temporary reduction of imports influenced the development of Chinese cotton yarn industry. During the war, Chinese import quantity of cotton yarn decreased by half while the price doubled. Narrative evidence suggests that theyarn firms took this opportunity to earn additional profits and increase investments, but aggregated studies show that the postwar years experienced greater capital formation. I combine newly constructed information on cotton yarn firms, access to trade, and local characteristics from multiple sources to construct a county-level panel dataset from 1907 to 1925 and quantitatively examine the impact of this trade shock on firm entry and investments. The results find a significant and positive impact on the cotton yarn industry, while the effect decreased as counties located further from ports. In addition, I examine the heterogeneous effects associated with various local institutions, and find that assess to finance was essential for firm entry. In other worlds, contemporary import substitution strategy brings potential gains for domestic industrial development, but supportive institutions are necessary for the benefits.

[编辑]：张萌